Corn Basis Rally Likely to Continue
Corn basis continue to rally this week. Wisconsin and Minnesota,
where basis has been particularly weak, saw average gains of over five
cents in many areas. Basis climbed 2 to 3 cents through most of the rest
of the Midwest. Illinois was the exception, however, as basis was weaker
around Chicago, and only increased slightly in the south of the state.
Many of the key markets listed below saw basis increases of 2 to 4
cents. Milwaukee was the only market to see basis decline. Weaker than
expected exports slowed sales on the Lakes. Gulf basis moved higher
gaining 3.5 cents this week.
| Corn Basis For Select Markets | ||||
| City | State | Current | Last Week | Last Month |
| Clinton | IA | -2.5 | -6 | -9 |
| Coon Rapids | IA | -32.5 | -35 | -35 |
| Davenport | IA | -13.5 | -16 | -16 |
| Eddyville | IA | -21.5 | -22 | -26 |
| Bloomington | IL | -11.5 | -17 | -15 |
| East St Louis | IL | 8.5 | 6 | -5 |
| Mendota | IL | -11.5 | -13 | -19 |
| Pekin | IL | -2.5 | -7 | -11 |
| Burns Harbor | IN | -9.5 | -10 | -20 |
| Evansville | IN | 9.5 | 9 | 1 |
| Mount Vernon | IN | 8.5 | 8 | -2 |
| South Bend | IN | -18.5 | -22 | -20 |
| Gulf | LA | 52.5 | 49 | 47 |
| Bingham Lake | MN | -39.5 | -42 | -41 |
| Marshall | MN | -33.5 | -36 | -32 |
| Albion | NE | -30.5 | -32 | -31 |
| Columbus | NE | -36.5 | -35 | -36 |
| Cincinnati | OH | 4.5 | 2 | -6 |
| Circleville | OH | -14.5 | -18 | -18 |
| Toledo | OH | -19.5 | -23 | -21 |
| Big Stone City | SD | -37.5 | -40 | -40 |
| Chancellor | SD | -40.5 | -43 | -37 |
| Milwaukee | WI | -17.5 | -14 | -8 |
| Stanley | WI | -38.5 | -40 | -41 |
Over the last week futures prices gained about a penny, after recovering from Wednesday's 5 cent decline. Cash deliveries were up Monday of this week, as producers delivered on their March contracts and sold into the end of the week futures rally. The increase in cash sales put some pressure on basis and with Futures giving up 5 cents on Monday many producers saw cash prices retreat significantly.
Will Monday's dip in cash prices slow cash sales again? It seems likely. Producers have been selling into the price rallies, but have been holding tight to their grain when prices retreat. With weak exports reported for the last week - inspections came in at 36.98 million bushels, missing the low end of analyst expectations- and bearish concerns over the Argentina harvest, bird flue, and possibly higher than expected corn acres, we may see several days of declining futures this week. With futures prices pulling back basis is likely to continue to rally in this coming week.
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